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Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins – 8/23/19 MLB Picks, Odds, and Predictions

By August 23, 2019August 29th, 2019No Comments

The Philadelphia Phillies, embroiled in a fight for one of two National League wild-card playoff spots, can read the schedule. They know the Miami Marlins – the team with the worst record in the league – are next, starting on Friday night, and they are surely thinking sweep.

After all, the Phillies head to Miami on a mini roll, having swept a brief two-game series at the Boston Red Sox.

Miami, meanwhile, is just happy to be back home at Marlins Park, where their 25-39 record is bad, but at least it’s better than their road mark of 20-42.

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In fact, the Marlins just concluded their second straight 0-6 road trip. The 12 straight road losses ties a club record, and they are just the second franchise in MLB’s modern era to go 0-6 or worse on consecutive trips within the same season.

Miami lost 3-2 to the Atlanta Braves on Thursday as Ronald Acuna had a walk-off hit.

“Wins are getting hard to come by,” Marlins manager Don Mattingly said after the Braves completed the season series by taking 14 of 19 from Miami. “There are a number of teams that have pumped us pretty good.”

Oddly, though, the Phillies are just 6-7 against the Marlins this year, and they hope to change that trend on Friday when they send right-hander Vince Velasquez (5-7, 4.35 ERA) to the mound.

Miami will counter with right-hander Hector Noesi (0-3, 9.39 ERA).

Velasquez is 3-4 with a 4.56 ERA since rejoining Philadelphia’s rotation in June. However, he has lasted more than 5 2/3 innings just once in that span.

In 13 career starts against the Marlins, Velasquez is 4-3 with a 3.26 ERA. However, he has yet to win at Marlins Park, going 0-3 with a 4.40 ERA in six starts. In two starts at Marlins Park this year, he is 0-1 with a 4.35 ERA.

Other than Marlins Park, Velasquez’s overall home/road splits are not a factor. He has a 4.22 ERA at home this year and just a bit higher (4.42) on the road.

Noesi, a 32-year-old journeyman, has never faced the Phillies in his six-year major-league career, going a combined 12-34 with a 5.46 ERA for five franchises.

Before this season, Noesi hadn’t pitched in the majors since 2015, when he went 0-4 with the Chicago White Sox. He hasn’t won a major-league game since Aug. 27, 2014.

And in his three major-league starts this season, Noesi has allowed at least five runs each time. In 15 1/3 innings, he has given up six home runs.

Noesi will have to deal with a lineup that includes Phillies star right fielder Bryce Harper as well as slugging first baseman Rhys Hoskins and ex-Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto.

Harper has 27 homers and 92 RBIs, Hoskins has 24 homers and 70 RBIs, and Realmuto has 19 homers and 66 RBIs.

On Wednesday, in a 5-2 win at Boston, Hoskins hit leadoff, Harper – who blasted a two-run homer – batted second, and Realmuto was in the No. 3 hole.

Right before Harper hit that homer, Boston fans were yelling “overrated” at the highly paid star.

“He’s good at that – shutting (fans) up,” Phillies manager Gabe Kapler said of Harper. “They were on him pretty good up until that (homer). I’m really happy for Bryce.”

Pick: Over 9 Runs